Igor Fedirko, head of the Gunsmiths Council, believes that Ukrainian arms exports could bring between $500 million and $1 billion in taxes to the state budget, but this figure will depend on the volume of arms sales.
Fedirko believes that this figure is not official, but only a forecast for technology companies and arms manufacturers. However, they are based on analytical data from previous years. In particular, he adds, in 2024, the total production capacity was about $20 billion, and the actual output was approximately $10 billion.
“In 2025, project capacity exceeded $35 billion. This means that the industry is capable of producing more than is currently confirmed in orders. Controlled exports allow us to monetize this surplus, reduce production costs through long series, and update the product range more quickly without risking supply to the front lines,” he says.
Igor Fedirko claims that exports worth $3–5 billion could bring in approximately $300–500 million in taxes per year. If volumes increase to $8–12 billion, potential revenues will reach approximately $0.7–1 billion per year. According to him, the exact amounts will depend on the structure of contracts, the share of localization, service conditions, and the speed of decisions in the field of export control.
“Exporting weapons to Ukraine is not about ‘getting rid of excess stock’, but about maintaining production levels without harming the front line. It is only permitted where the Armed Forces are fully supplied, and is halted at the slightest sign of a risk of shortage,” emphasises the head of the Ukrainian Council of Arms Manufacturers.
Fedirko adds that the proceeds from the sale of surplus weapons can be used to purchase scarce ones. Currently, the Armed Forces of Ukraine still lack air defense systems, interceptor missiles, artillery ammunition, and explosive components, as well as critical electronics and sensors. These items remain untouched and are directed exclusively to the needs of the army. In addition, he notes that competition in the global arms market remains extremely fierce.
Ukrainian weapons have several strong advantages:
- battle test;
- optimal price-performance ratio;
- fast production cycle and delivery to the front line;
- Interoperability: our solutions are compatible with both NATO and post-Soviet platforms, which is important for many countries in Asia and Africa.
“We also offer not just supplies, but partnership — localization, service, and on-site training. And finally, a transparent export control regime: one-time licenses, end-user certificates, re-export bans, and post-delivery control eliminate risks for partners,” summarizes the head of the Ukrainian Council of Arms Manufacturers.
