The Economist noted that Ukraine will need a total of $389 billion in external support over the next four years. This is also due to the fact that the administration of US President Donald Trump has stopped funding Ukraine, so the burden on the budgets of European countries is expected to increase from approximately 0.2% of GDP to 0.4%.
Currently, Ukraine’s direct defence budget is approximately $65 billion per year. An additional $73 billion is spent on all other government expenditures. The government collects about $90 billion in revenue domestically, leaving it with an annual budget deficit of about $50 billion. Separately, there are expenditures on weapons from allies, which this year amount to about $40 billion. However, the Kremlin’s actual war expenditures may exceed Ukraine’s by 200%.
The publication suggests that Ukraine’s overall defence needs will grow by 5% per year in the future. And the restoration of damaged infrastructure will cost $5 billion per year. Therefore, Kyiv’s needs over the next four years, including transferred weapons, budget support and some restoration costs, amount to $389 billion. Moreover, funding must continue even if the war ends.
The EU has planned to allocate $15 billion by 2027. Non-European partners, apart from the US, are likely to provide Ukraine with $2 billion per year, and the IMF – about $10 billion. Therefore, the only viable option to cover all of Ukraine’s needs is a reparations loan provided from the Russian Federation’s frozen accounts in Europe.
